Market dynamics
Fluorspar is a valuable commodity with a global market value of approximately US$2 billion and an annual demand of 6Mt per annum. The outlook for global demand growth for acid grade fluorspar in the long term remains positive and will exceed global gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.6% per annum over the next 10 years. In addition, fluorspar’s value lies in the multiple downstream levels that can significantly uplift it, and the downstream market value is estimated at US$112 billion.
South Africa’s export market is widespread to USA, Europe, Middle East and India primarily for hydrofluoric acid production, aluminum fluoride and refrigerants. Developing markets will be for elements of battery production for both EVs and energy storage systems.
There has been a global shift in supply dynamics over the last few years with China importing fluorspar and distributing the end products (such as EV batteries) within the country.
Acid grade fluorspar supply/demand balance (2015-2032) – illustrating the predicated deficit in 2028
Source: 2022 CRU International Fluorspar price forecast
Net importer | Net exporter (fluorspar)
Source: Fluorine Forum 2022
Fluorspar production by country ~7Mt
Source: Fluorine Forum 2022